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Anyone who suffered through the decade or so while U.S. cellular networks figured out how to upgrade their infrastructure from 2G to 3G -- which they're all finally running now -- is probably pretty darn excited that people are already talking about rolling out 4G, the next generation of networks that, in theory at least, sounds really really fast.



Sorry folks, put away the candles and the birthday hats: The reality is that when 4G actually arrives, it really won't be much faster than 3G is today.

What is 4G, anyway? The name refers to the fourth major generation of cellular technology to be developed, but as with 3G it comprises a variety of standards with acronym-heavy names that you probably have zero interest in. The bottom line is that 4G, like 3G before it, should represent a massive leap in performance over the prior generation of mobile radio technology. If historical trends continued, 4G would be 10 to 20 times faster than what we're working with today, a huge jump that would have a massive impact on how mobile data and entertainment services are consumed.

Well, don't get your hopes up, folks. Analysts are warning consumers that the first 4G networks won't be much faster than 3G -- and question marks remain on upgrades down the line. While no one knows what the true actual average speeds will be when these networks launch, it's clear they won't begin to approach their theoretical maximum speeds, generally quoted in the range of 70 to 100Mbps.



Rather, expect to see speeds well under 10Mbps, and probably closer to 5Mbps... not much better than the 2 to 3.5Mbps you can achieve on a 3G network with good coverage today.

And even though some networks, led by Sprint's WiMax efforts, are already rolling out 4G pilot projects in a variety of cities, we've still got years to go before 4G becomes a reality for most of the country. One network hardware vendor posits that even five years from now, 3G will still be the dominant mobile standard. The bottom line: Don't get suckered by a hot acronym until the technology is actually proven.

4G? More like 3.25G from the sound of it.